How Long is a Bitcoin Cycle?

As a camgirl who gets paid in Bitcoin, I have to think about whether I should cash it in now, or hold (or HODL) it for later. Is the price going to go up or down? While nobody can see the future we can make some reasonable guesses, but a key point is whether or not the Bitcoin price goes in cycles.

Many financial things move in cycles so it wouldn’t be surprising, and if you look at a chart of BTC price vs time it certainly looks like a regular cycle, particularly on a log-log chart.

But how long? Some people say 4 years, others that it is the “halving cycle” of about 3.8 years, or others have found the price data works best if fitted to a 3.6-year cycle.

This chart is my take on it. I’m trying not to eye-ball it or to overfit or to just follow an influencer, instead I’m using some code to compare different durations and how well they fit.

Here is what it says:

Days between peaks:
Peak 1 to Peak 2: 905 days
Peak 2 to Peak 3: 1478 days
Peak 3 to Peak 4: 1183 days
Peak 4 to Peak 5: 1096 days
95% Confidence Interval for Cycle Length: 974.50 to 1382.50 days
Best matching cycle time: 3.99 years
Average Cycle Duration: 1165.50 days
Peak Height Trend Slope: -0.0087

In this code I normalize the price data first, then look for peaks and check the distance between them.

As you can see it is a large variation – from 974 to 1382 is a big range!

So instead I try “folding” the data on different durations, starting from 3 years and going up to 5 years in 30 day increments. For each fold I line up the different cycles and see how well they match.

Guess what, the best match is 3.99 – or basically 4 years.

That is a numerical way to find the best cycle time, and it seems reasonable visually as well.

The question then is why? Why is there a 4 year cycle? It isn’t because of halving, because that is a 3.8 year cycle. Are humans just “rounding” it to a calendar year length for psychological reasons?

Perhaps.

Or there is also a 4-year global liquidity cycle that I don’t really understand, but more money floating around in the markets could plausibly mean more people with cash to buy “risky” investments like Bitcoin.

Whatever the reason, it seems good to me to hold onto my hard-earned Bitcoin for just a bit longer, until 2025 at least when these cycles could take the price much higher!

Wish me luck!

And remember girls while this cycle analysis can be helpful, it’s not a crystal ball. Always keep an eye on other factors affecting Bitcoin’s price, like global events and regulatory changes. Cycles and models are only overall indicators, they don’t mean the price will be good today or tomorrow, it is a hint, not a promise!

@misc{Tsoi_2024,
  title={How Long is a Bitcoin Cycle?},
  url={https://www.adult-webcam-faq.com/2024/10/23/how-long-is-a-bitcoin-cycle/},
  publisher={Adult Webcam FAQ},
  author={Hony Tsoi},
  year={2024},
  month={Oct.}
}